Think the Fed doesn't care what the stock market does?

Click here to see why you are wrong!

Remarks by President Bush in a Roundtable on Strengthening Social Security

President Bush takes his Strengthing Social Security Road Trip to Galveston!

Without knowing the Presidents travel plans we used this space back in February to stump for a trip to Galveston, TX to highlight the succuss of the private plan that Galveston has. In Galveston the municipal employees opted out of Social Security in the early 80's.


More Resources:
White House

News from Iraq...

Iraq has become like background static on the news.Are things going well or falling apart?

Simply just too much information to reference or link to the resources he presents.

Read it for yourself!

Weekly Market Returns...

The wild ride continues the major indices finished the week up, while Friday was marked with a sharp decline. Some say this is just a correction and some say this decline is a harbinger of a coming recession.

For the week the Nasdaq was up 1.3%, the S&P 500 .8% and the DJIA .7%.

Items of note for the week, strong earnings reports and a Beige Book from the Fed that frets about inflationary pressures across the board in Fed districts.

Energy prices have lead inflation higher and the future trend in Crude Oil, Gasoline and Natural Gas will determine the course of inflation in the coming months. If oil would just settle down in the $48-52 range things likely would not look so bad.

GasBuddy.com

GasBuddy.com - Find yourself some cheap gasoline

Weekly Market Returns

For the week the S&P 500 was down -3.3%, the DJIA -3.6% and the Nasdaq -4.6%.

Returns where negatively effected by the twin specters of higher rates and lower growth.

The US Federal Reserve released minutes from the March meeting, which was initially taken by the market as good news. The Fed is concerned about inflation but remains "measured" in it's pace. The gotcha is that the peak for rates may ultimately be higher than once thought, "the required amount of cumulative tightening may have increased".

In terms of growth, IBMs earnings number disappointed, the Fed's empire index came in weak and retail sales ex Gasoline and Autos were bearish.

Market activity leads people to believe that we may have tipped into recession. On Friday the ECRI's weekly leading index pointed to continued strong growth, but the market did not notice.

So which is it? Fundamentals remain positive even though economic growth is losing some momentum.

Someone once said "stocks go on sale twice a year", this may be one of those markdown sales.

An ugly end to an ugly week on Wall St.

What exactly happened?

From Economy.com
Consumption of motor gasoline increased by 1.4% during the week compared to the same period one year ago, a substantial increase. However, the pace of consumption growth has been slowing, possibly due to higher prices. Only a week ago, consumption recorded a year-over-year increase of 1.9%.

This info hit the tape 4/13/2005 at 10:30 AM

Could it be that for the powers that be on Wall St. that the loss of momentum in demand for gasoline is a sign that consumers have reached their level of pain?

Enough to tip us into a recession?

Choose to Save Financial Calculators

Calculators Galore!

Get in there and noodle something!

The more you know about your financial situation the better off you will be...

Interesting tool from Morningstar.com a Market Valuation Graph

It uses the proprietary price/fair value ratio from their equity research.

It is interesting, check it out!

Weekly Market Returns

The stock market advanced this week as oil declined and we entered the earnings season. Alcoa started off the earnings season and we got a decent report.

Ford warned on the full year (High gas prices = lower SUV sales) and Dell came in with an encouraging outlook.

For the week the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 advanced .7% each and the DJIA rose .5%.

Next week the focus will be on earnings and expectations (official company guidance). Expectations are remarkably low, if oil settles down and we get some positive news on the earnings front we just might be able to scrap together a rally.

Social Security Reform Resource Center

Still unconvinced that there is a crisis headed our way?
Summary of the 2005 Social Security Trustees Report

Pro:
socialsecurity.org

socialsecurityreform.org

Libertarian Party Position

Concord Coalition

National Center for Policy Analysis

Bush Administration

Debunking Myths

Con:
AARP position

How to fix Social Security

Debunking Myths

12 reasons against private accounts

Editors Note: Our goal with this post was to provide readers with a number of resources to educate themselves on the issue of Social Security Reform. At first we where digging for a point/counterpoint but to no avail. Then we where looking for a equal number of resources to post, which has been more difficult than we imagined. Few groups are openly opposed to changes to Social Security to insure its solvency for coming generations, but most groups in an opposition camp are firmly opposed to private accounts.

Once this is posted we will continue to work to provide a set of balanced resources so that you can research this issue and decide for yourself.

Retirement Savings Calculator

All the talk about the solvency of the Social Security System have you worried?

Ready to get serious about planning you own retirement security?

Check out our Retirement Savings Calculator, plug in your info, play with the numbers and noodle out just how much you need to be putting away each year to fund a secure retirement.

Don't put it off, knowing what you need is the first step in formulating a plan!

Weekly Market Returns

Is the market drowning in oil?

For the week the markets struggled to stay positive with crude prices rising to new highs, the S&P 500 was up .1%, the Nasdaq down -.3% and the DJIA off -.4%

Crude oil continued its upward march this week on news from Goldman Sachs that they had moved the forward range for crude oil prices higher, from a range of $50-$85 to a range of $50-$105.

$105 seems far fetched with the markets well supplied and stocks building. Of course with the growth in global demand a supply disruption could easily spike prices.

Over the past three years technology and telecom shares have been negatively correlated with crude.

If you are bullish on crude at these levels, then stay long energy. If not, start looking for opportunities in sectors beaten down by the run up of energy prices.

Chart of the Month

This months chart of the month details the Real Fed Funds Rate.

The Fed Funds Rate is the rate that the US Federal Reserve uses to set monetary policy with short term interest rates. The Real Fed Funds Rate is the Fed Funds Rate less the rate of inflation.

The Real Fed Funds rate has been negative for 29 months, which is very aggressive and very accommodating in terms of monetary policy. Some market watchers have advocated that the Fed needs to move short term rates up 1/2 a point at the next meeting and remove the "measured pace" language from the next release.

Our opinion is with employment situation still less than stellar, the Fed may slow down once the Real Fed Funds rate is neutral or slightly positive. If not, then we know that inflation is a concern and they are working hard to kill it off.